D2D Triumvir🅰️te

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Did ‘meme stock’ ASTS just lock-up the entire US market?

Around 56 BC in the quaint Tuscan town of Lucca, Julius Caesar, Pompey the Great and Marcus Crassus formed the First Triumvirate — and although this powerful trio didn’t always see eye to eye, they’d go on to completely dominate Roman politics.

Some 2,000 years later, US wireless patricians AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile quietly announced a new mighty alliance, essentially pooling their spectrum resources to connect all American plebs through satellite-based, direct-to-device (D2D) tech. 🛰️🤳

Like Roman citizens way back when, most current industry observers and investors didn’t make much of the announcement. However, the ‘zealots and space geeks’ affectionately known as the SpaceMob immediately knew what’s at stake — with a prominent member labelling it ‘an absolute game changer and watershed moment for the wireless industry with AST SpaceMobile the tip of the spear for disruption.’

Lo and behold, in short order ASTS’ maverick founder-CEO Abel Avellan lobbed a tweet grenade:

Source: X/Twitter (15/05/26)

Quick context. ASTS has long-standing, exclusive partnerships with both AT&T and Verizon, while T-Mobile up until yesterday was regarded a cornerstone Starlink/ SpaceX ally. For more colour, please check out my previous write-up Dark Side of the Phone. 🌈

Hence if indeed T-Mobile defects from Starlink, ASTS has essentially locked-up most of the US wireless consumer market(!) Not bad for a meme stock..

Gradually, certain savvy research analysts came to realize what was unfolding right in front of their eyes. Roth Capital eventually put out a note arguing ‘the venture opens the door for ASTS to partner T-Mobile in what appears to be a Tier 1 shot across the Starlink D2D bow.’

..and then suddenly, Starlink’s CEO Gwynne Shotwell all but confirmed she’d been oblivious to T-Mobile ‘crossing the Rubicon’:

Source: X/Twitter (15/05/26)

Attempting to regain tactical high ground, Shotwell bizarrely depicted Starlink/ SpaceX as the underdog. Keep in mind, her little David’s slinging a ~$2trn IPO — vs. ‘Goliath’ standing tall at ~$0.03trn.. 🤨

In conjunction, your dedicated shrimp is eagerly awaiting sell-side (re)re-pulling comps for Elon’s big roadshow. Granted Starlink constitutes a meaningful chunk of SpaceX’s SoTP, what might ASTS be worth?

Simplistically pegging ASTS at ~10% of SpaceX’s target valuation, we easily get to >5x current levels. Based on reports Starlink drives ~60%-70% of total SpaceX topline, that could jolly well be conservative. 🤑 We’ll know more once the S-1 drops.

Meanwhile, an astute SpaceMob member stood up a more granular valuation framework:

Source: X/Twitter (15/05/25)

Caveat shrimptor; these numbers are illustrative only, and I should also point out that ASTS has not formally joined the D2D Triumvir🅰️te.

For political reasons, the First Triumvirate was never promulgated an official Roman institution. Similarly, even with T-Mobile’s Starlink deal due to expire this summer, it’s very unlikely we’ll get an official confirmation any time soon seeing that DoJ/ FCC maintains stringent anti-competitive guardrails.

So what’s next? Intriguingly, ASTS is set to launch three satellites in mid-June — the service provider being, you guessed it, SpaceX. 🚀🧇 As Elon himself often muses; ‘the most entertaining outcome, especially if ironic, is the most likely..’

Before we wrap-up, I’ll leave you with a delicious little waffle heart. In the midst of all this drama, mega 🐳 and Insider-in-Chief Donald Trump disclosed two separate ASTS trades. POTUS’ stake is admittedly relatively small, yet it may indicate pending Golden Dome and/or other flagship gov’t awards — so watch this space:

Source: X/Twitter (15/05/26)

‘More people worship the rising than the setting sun.’ Pompey the Great

Comments and questions always welcome — below or X/Twitter

Shrimp out. 🍤

Disclaimer: I’m long ASTS. The content on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and is not created to meet your personal financial situation. Nothing should be considered as investment advice or as a guarantee of profit. You are advised to consult with your financial advisors to discuss your investment options and whether it would be a suitable investment for your personal needs. The information used in this publication is from sources that are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It may include some errors, please make sure to do your due diligence. The opinions expressed are those of the author and the author only. These opinions are subject to change without prior notice.