I, Quantum
IonQ (IONQ)
IONQ is superpositioned to become Quantum Emperor
Robert Graves’ historical novel I, Claudius vividly renders how Claudius was born lame, stammered like a broken qubit and decohered by scheming relatives — yet found his way to the Roman throne as an astonishingly productive emperor.
Quantum computing pioneer IonQ has long been mocked as a dully idiotic venture by the classical compute establishment, cryptically onlooking as peers celebrated the recent US gov’t cash awards. But could it be, like Claudius, IONQ’s stoically building an empire?
IONQ offers a full-stack quantum platform incl. a newly acquired US chip manufacturing foundry. The tech hails from decades of rigorous academic research fused w/ an increasingly forward-leaning commercial approach, making it the first quantum pure-play crowned w/ a $100mn+ topline.
Granted science has progressed a lot since the Julio-Claudian days, classical compute transistors remain binarily constrained to either 0 or 1. 0️⃣1️⃣ That’s way too crude to describe our chaotically messy world where ‘delicate waves of electrons dance inside molecules.’
Applying nature’s own principles, IONQ has shrewdly found a way to calculate on the atoms themselves utilizing quantum bits superpositioned to store both 0 and 1. ⚛️ That may sound trivial, but it’s an absolute game changer enabling quantum computers to simultaneously analyze all possible paths at a blistering pace.
Thus quantum’s computational power grows exponentially rather than linearly, unlocking use cases like drug discovery, advanced material science and logistics optimization — in addition to a plethora of applications we can’t even envisage..
McKinsey forecasts the quantum market could hit $60-$100bn globally by 2035 (see below,) stretching from hardware to software across compute, networking, sensing and security. Assuming ~20x price/sales multiple, ivy consultant math values the space ~$1.2-2trn:
IONQ’s already making the qubits rain w/ a colossal ~$130mn topline last year. Q1’26 also came in above consensus ~$65mn — allowing mgmt to aggressively push FY26 guidance to $260-270mn, backed by ~$500mn backlog and ~$3bn B/S cash.
The augustan outlook’s further underpinned by established commercial partnerships incl. bluechips like AstraZeneca for drug discovery and Ansys for engineering simulations. While IONQ’s biz model remains half-baked, its key offerings are cloud-native w/ mgmt hinting future pricing will be value-based (rather than usage or seats,) implying meaningful rev share upside.
As a keen student of history, Claudius instinctively knew it’s not easy for an upstart Octavian to beat entrenched Caesars. Similarly, the quantum field’s embryonic w/ treacherous competitive dynamics and multiple technical bets playing out in real time.
On the one hand, IONQ champions a trapped ion modality leveraging naturally created atoms. On the other, deep-pocketed giants Google and IBM have long favored synthetic superconducting architectures.
IONQ’s pragmatic approach has enabled iterative de-risking jointly w/ partners, commercially validating its platform as more economical and scalable vs. legacy comps:
Caveat shrimptor; the illustration above’s a perspective, not a fact. Trading ~$20bn mkt cap, or ~75x ‘26E revs, IONQ’s essentially a billion-dollar option on a trillion-dollar opportunity. As the old Roman proverb goes, audentes fortuna iuvat (fortune favors the bold) — HODL’ing this stock therefore requires a quantum leap of faith, especially given the gladiatorial cash burn, share dilution and insider selling.
My guess is IONQ will remain super volatile whilst Mr Market observes upcoming catalysts. Most important of which is metamorphosing into a critical piece of US security infrastructure through the $1.8bn acquisition of DoW-linked foundry SkyWater.
Upon deal close, we should get more colour on IONQ’s omission from the CHIPS grant recipient list (bulls argue it signals strength) — as well as closer entanglement w/ AI juggernaut Nvidia in hybrid compute environments.
IONQ also needs to execute flawlessly on its technical roadmap, ramping from hundred(s) to millions of qubits by 2030 w/o compromising high fidelity. In other words, it must bridge the gap from narrow commercial use cases to hitherto unfathomable frontiers in mathematics and science.
Robert Graves’ I, Claudius is widely considered one of the best books ever written, sequelled by Claudius the God chronicling his later years as emperor. If history does indeed rhyme, embracing temporary foolishness remains key to long-term success: 👑
‘Ten years, fifty days and three,
Clau-Clau-Clau- shall given be,
A gift that all desire but he.
To a fawning fellowship,
He shall stammer, cluck and trip,
Dribbling always with his lip.
But when he's dumb and no more here,
Nineteen hundred years or near,
Clau-Clau-Claudius shall speak clear.’
Comments and questions always welcome — below or X/Twitter
Shrimp out. 🍤
Disclaimer: I’m long IONQ. The content on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and is not created to meet your personal financial situation. Nothing should be considered as investment advice or as a guarantee of profit. You are advised to consult with your financial advisors to discuss your investment options and whether it would be a suitable investment for your personal needs. The information used in this publication is from sources that are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It may include some errors, please make sure to do your due diligence. The opinions expressed are those of the author and the author only. These opinions are subject to change without prior notice.